Why I Think Economic Policy Uncertainty Is Likely to Stay High
[ad_1] The end of the China import tariff pause is about the same time as the debt ceiling x-date… Source: Bipartisan Policy Center, accessed 14
*Not* Making the Planes Run on Time
[ad_1] What exactly has the current administration gotten us? Not lower prices (as was promised). For now, not apparently safer skies. Source: Bloomberg via ClaimsJournal.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Up | Econbrowser
[ad_1] We should all be relieved that there’s been a 90 day pause in the tariffs on Chinese imports, but since they’re on tap in
Momentum in “Core” GDP | Econbrowser
[ad_1] According to GDPNow of 4/8. However, GDP and final sales are both on a lower trajectory. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow est of
“Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
[ad_1] I’ll be discussing this topic on Wednesday at the University of Wisconsin’s Union South (5:30), under the auspices of the Madison Committee on Foreign
Business Cycle Indicators – 6 May 2025
[ad_1] Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP
Plain Vanilla 12-month ahead Recession Predictions
[ad_1] Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate: Figure 1: Estimated recession probability using 1986 onward sample (blue), using pre-pandemic sample
American Association of Physicians and Surgeons Opines on … Gold
[ad_1] For my sins, I get emails from AAPS: central banks globally are buying gold, but since 2021, foreign official purchases of the U.S. Treasury
Alternative Estimates of Output | Econbrowser
[ad_1] GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and
A Closer Look at Employment
[ad_1] Transportation and warehousing boomed. Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention). Figure 1: Cumulative log change since September 2024