EJ Antoni Redefines Recession as What the American People Feel
[ad_1] See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being in a recession, but
Downgrades and CDS | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Bessent says Moody’s downgrade is a lagging indicator… But then the Moody’s statement itself states: We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in
Republicans’ Economic Outlook Darken | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Preliminary results indicate that this development precedes “Liberation Day”: Figure 1: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers expectations for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue), Independent (gray),
GDP on a Lower Trajectory – Survey of Professional Forecasters
[ad_1] From Survey of Professional Forecasters: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (light blue), February SPF median (red), GDPNow, 5/16 (blue square), all
Michigan Survey Implies a Catastrophic Collapse of Fed Inflation Credibility
[ad_1] NY Fed survey doesn’t. Figure 1: Bordo-Siklos measure of central bank credibility, using 5 year Michigan expectations (blue). Assumes 2.45% CPI inflation is consistent with
Economic Sentiment Continues to Fall as Inflation Expectations Climb Further
[ad_1] Sentiment (prelminary) below consensus. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard
Graphs from “Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
[ad_1] New conditions, not new approaches. From my presentation (PDF) yesterday for MCFR: Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 4/12/2025. Additional 60% tariffs on Chinese imported
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: April Manufacturing Production and Real Retail Sales Down
[ad_1] Both production and sales below m/m consensus. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange),
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May; Manufacturing Contracts in “Liberation” Month
[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December
Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP
[ad_1] Monthly data, with May through the 13th. Figure 1: EPU-News, average of daily data (blue). May observation through 13th. Standard deviation of log EPU