Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth
[ad_1] At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time) This is what 3%
Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor
[ad_1] Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses.
Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End
[ad_1] Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture
Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO
[ad_1] Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO” …Mr.
What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?
[ad_1] I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising. First, let’s think of how the long
Economic Activity: GDP, GDO, GDP+, Final Sales
[ad_1] As of 2nd release for 2025Q1. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (light blue), GDP+ based on 2022Q4 GDP (tan), final sales (red), all
Weekly Indicators of GDP Growth
[ad_1] The Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed measure for data through 5/24 is down to 1.88%, down from 2.79% on the week of Trump’s inauguration, down from peak
Furniture Prices Up, Up and Away in April
[ad_1] Can’t wait to see May data. Figure 1: PPI for furniture and household durables, n.s.a. (blue, left log scale), and CPI for furniture and
Some Stabilization in Economic Confidence
[ad_1] While (UMich) economic sentiment (preliminary) falls. Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Economic
Imports from China, Foretold | Econbrowser
[ad_1] More accurately, nowcasted using inbound container traffic. Two thirds of Chinese imports (by value) comes by sea freight. And sea freight from China doesn’t