Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31
[ad_1] WEI continues to decline. Figure 1: Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index plus 2% (tan), both annualized %. Source:
GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of) | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day” trend. Figure 1: GDP
The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
[ad_1] And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless … Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
“Trump may actually want a recession…”
[ad_1] That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for a recession. From Yahoo!Finance
Global Imbalances as Global Recession EWS?
[ad_1] EWS = “Early Warning System”. Jamel Saadaoui has an interesting blogpost, investigating whether the median current account to GDP balance — namely when it
Policy Uncertainty Watch
[ad_1] Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com. [ad_2] Source
Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
[ad_1] EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find that a 90 pt
Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30. Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue, left scale), and nonresidential
GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
[ad_1] Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers. Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan), GDPNow of 5/30 (blue
Measured Trade Uncertainty Spikes | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index. Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red,