[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
[ad_1] Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids [Originally posted in December 16, 2024] Wages for farm workers
Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7
[ad_1] Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI: Figure 1: Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims
Federal Budget Deficit through May
[ad_1] It’s not smaller than this point in 2024: Source: CBO, Monthly Budget Review: May 2025. [ad_2] Source link
Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
[ad_1] ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at nominal prices (CA 14%,
In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
[ad_1] Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a handle
Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024, stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that we
“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3
[ad_1] Part 2 was during the last Trump administration. Some things never change. From Richard Rubin in today’s WSJ: Swagel, a mild-mannered academic economist, runs
May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below
[ad_1] +139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down -12K.
Re-inversion 10yr-3mo, Weakening Dollar | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue), and 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red), both in %. Treasury via FRED. Figure
Is American Consumption too High?
[ad_1] The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes. Rebalancing the global economy is Donald Trump’s defining cause. China should produce