Business Cycle Indicators: The Slowdown Cometh?
[ad_1] Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous releases. Monthly GDP from
Manufacturing Value Added Flat | Econbrowser
[ad_1] So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”. Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red), employment (tan), hours (light green) all
Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”
[ad_1] In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege: As McCauley notes: While the US Treasury downgrade did
GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
[ad_1] NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking: Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), May Survey of Professional Forecasters (tan), GDPNow of 6/18 (light blue
Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
[ad_1] With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark
Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
[ad_1] The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g.,
Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June
[ad_1] With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl
Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
[ad_1] Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently. Figure 1: Top panel – Economic Policy Uncertainty – trade category (blue); Bottom panel
Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
[ad_1] Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45% (Reuters). It’s important to