The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
[ad_1] From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”: [ad_2] Source link
You Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
[ad_1] As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!). Source: Cavallo et al. June 30, 2025. [ad_2] Source link
June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
[ad_1] Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth June 2025 survey median (red
Policy Uncertainty Spikes
[ad_1] As of today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, CBOE
Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
[ad_1] Various observers have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and tracking estimates of this
Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
[ad_1] There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and gold holdings through 2025Q1.
CEA Unleashed! | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB: $1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting deficit reduction from higher
“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”
[ad_1] That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income excluding transfers also decline
Dollar Decline and Incipient Inflationary Pressures
[ad_1] Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it. Figure 1: Fed broad dollar index, 2006M01=100 (black, left
GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers
[ad_1] From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as