Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
[ad_1] A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words: Figure 1: Sum of nonresidential equipment and structures investment, bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), and
Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
[ad_1] There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry. Figure 1: Civilian
The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
[ad_1] Source: NYT, July 6, 2025. The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount, but not too much
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down | Econbrowser
[ad_1] So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums: Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red), employment (production and nonsupervisory)
Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
[ad_1] Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade
Central Bank Gold Holdings | Econbrowser
[ad_1] A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”. Global central banks bought a net 20t in May, based on reported
Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
[ad_1] Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0): Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of 6/27 (light blue square),
Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
[ad_1] June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat
Private NFP Downside Surprise | Econbrowser
[ad_1] +74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K. Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June release (red), nowcast using
ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
[ad_1] ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for