WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
[ad_1] From WSJ July survey out today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), lowest/highest 10% based on 2025 q4/q4 growth (gray
Dispersion in GDP Nowcasts | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As of today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 7/9 (light blue inverted triangle), NY Fed nowcast of 7/11 (red square), St. Louis
Policy Uncertainty *before* 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico … and Rosie O’Donnell
[ad_1] See here and here. Every morning I wake up, think I can’t see anything more crazy than what occurred yesterday, and then I check
Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
[ad_1] Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS): Figure 1: USD shares of fx (blue bars), EUR (tan), all other (gray). USD(EUR) share assumes 60%(35%) of
Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July
[ad_1] From Cleveland Fed today: Figure 1: Year on year core CPI inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), Bloomberg consensus of 7/11 (teal triangle). June, July
June Alternative Indicators Down from Peak
[ad_1] Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The sole exception is the
Effective Tariff Rates *before* Copper & Brazil
[ad_1] From Yale Budget Lab: Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 10 July 2025. [ad_2] Source link
Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
[ad_1] Here’s the data through 7/9: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale). Source: Baker, Bloom &
GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
[ad_1] From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027. These estimates based on a VAR(2) using annual data,
When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…
[ad_1] Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg): “TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will