“What to know about Trump’s new pharmaceutical tariff plan”: That We Don’t Know Anything
Really, you read “The Hill” article, you literally don’t know anything. According to a former federal trade official, enforcing this sort of directive will not
What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against a backdrop of a rising
Trade Policy Uncertainty | Econbrowser
Nothing like a 100% tariff on (branded?) pharma to push up EPU-Trade Figure 1: EPU-trade category (left scale, blue), Trade Policy Uncertainty
Growth Reliance on the Tech Spending Boom
Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending. Source: DB, 24 Sep 2025. The second, from the
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society
Sentiment Declines | Econbrowser
U.Michigan index revised down from preliminary. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment at or Below April 2025 Levels, Personal Income ex-Transfers Below
With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Personal income
Wisconsin Hammered by Tariffs? | Econbrowser
Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right. Figure 1: Panel A: Average effective tariff rate, % (black), Panel
The Safety of the Nation Depends on … Upholstered Furniture and Bathroom Vanities
The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT: United States would begin imposing a 50 percent tariff on imported
Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month). Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark NFP (bold blue), industrial production