Scary Picture? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Prepping for my lecture on Monday, I plotted this graph of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio against the 10
What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)
[ad_1] Kalshi has the shutdown lasting 29.4 days as of now, was up to 31.1 days earlier. Here’s the BLS calendar for
Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels
[ad_1] With today’s release of University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary) data, we have this picture. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue),
Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size
[ad_1] Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data. Figure 1: Cumulative employment
Agricultural Exports through August | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Down from January: Figure 1: Agricultural (food, feed and beverages) exports in mn$ (tan), in mn2017$ (blue), both seasonally adjusted. August
Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
[ad_1] From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this post. [ad_2] Source link
Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
[ad_1] The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu!). Farmer sentiment
An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator
[ad_1] Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER
What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs
[ad_1] A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using millions of paper checks…)?
Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition
[ad_1] From Bloomberg, “Trump Says US Tariffs on Heavy Truck Imports to Start Nov. 1”: Trump’s announcement is tied to a probe