Why Trade Uncertainty – Illustrated
[ad_1] Here’re the Baker-Bloom-Davis categorical trade policy uncertainty measure and the Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index. Why are these measures elevated? In my
EJ Antoni/Heritage: “Back from the Brink: Trump’s Economy Soars Instead of Crashing”
[ad_1] What’s this guy smoking? From the article (originally Wash Examiner): Many so-called experts predicted that President Trump’s economic agenda would usher in an inflationary
Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”
[ad_1] Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Pascal Michaillat (UCSC). Is the U.S. economy in a recession? While economists debate
“Groceries” under Trump | Econbrowser
[ad_1] ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025. Figure 1: CPI food-at-home (black); ERS forecast of January (light blue square), ERS forecast of
CEA: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods”
[ad_1] That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this is the relevant question
EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis
[ad_1] From Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni on X: N.B.: this is an INDIRECT indicator of tariffs not being passed on b/c import prices have
Thanks, Drumpf | Econbrowser
[ad_1] WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), 2023-2024 stochastic trend (blue), WSJ July mean (tan), WSJ 20% high/low
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty
[ad_1] Policy uncertainty has remains high; does it matter for economic uncertainty? Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right
Tariffs in the Data | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category: Figure 1: CPI all urban (blue), CPI commodities (green), and CPI – furniture and household
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales
[ad_1] Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC in