Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?”
[ad_1] Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same
How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
[ad_1] I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data. Figure 1: Consumption, 2017$ (bold black, left scale), Services Consumption, 2017$
The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
[ad_1] Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps. Source: TradingEconomics. Subsequent accounts note the optimism that a deal
LA under Occupation: Macro Indicators for California
[ad_1] On June 7, President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed troops to LA. This followed instances of aggressively conducted ICE raids against
GAO: “Automatic supports are most effective when they are timely, temporary, targeted, and predictable”
[ad_1] I think we’ll need these sooner than you think. But legislation has just been passed to disable these supports. From GAO, “During Past Recessions
Quick and Dirty Check on Whether Steel Prices Have Fallen
[ad_1] Recall CEA has asserted that imported goods prices (incl tariffs) have fallen relative to domestically produced, based on conjoining 2017 IO tables and PCE
Bertaut, von Beschwitz and Curcuru/FRB: “The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition”
[ad_1] FEDS note published on Friday: The role of the U.S. dollar has received renewed attention this year. A sharp rise in policy uncertainty has
Consumer Price Level – Alternatives
[ad_1] How’s dropping prices for everyday folks going? Figure 1: CPI all (black), CPI for food (tan), Everyday Price Index (green), all in logs, 2025M01=0.
How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?
[ad_1] The Commerce Department eliminated two advisory committees on economic statistics gathering (see Marketplace). BLS received some additional funds in March as part of a