US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar
[ad_1] What else did you expect? Figure 1: US exports of goods and services (black, left log scale), GDPNow nowcast (light blue square, left log
TACO, Again! (China Edition) | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Not that I’m complaining. From SCMP via Bloomberg: US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months, the South
Betting on 2.5% | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (blue open square), NY Fed (light blue
Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis
[ad_1] It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check–I did!).
Scary Picture? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still… Figure 1: Monthly GDP (black), private nonfarm payroll employment-ADP (blue), civilian
West Coast Port Traffic Down
[ad_1] Or at least Long Beach and LA: Figure 1: Inbound loaded TEU’s at Long Beach and LA ports, n.s.a. (black, left scale), year-on-year growth
Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”
[ad_1] As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is deceleration. Figure 1: GDP,
Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp
[ad_1] Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”: Rosstat this week affirmed its preliminary first-quarter GDP growth estimate of 1.4 %
What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
[ad_1] Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility. Figure 1: Fed funds implied by Taylor rule. 3 ppts below
(Fed) Credibility Lost? Bordo-Siklos 5 Year
[ad_1] We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this is recovery is durable