State of the Macroeconomy: GDP, Key Indicators as of 7/31
[ad_1] Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release yesterday, looking at different aspects of economic activity: Quarterly Indicators First, ignoring the self-congratulatory remarks
Economy back to growing | Econbrowser
[ad_1] The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the second quarter. I
Final Nowcast for Q2 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Forecasts: CEA >> IMF > WSJ
[ad_1] From IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, released today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO current law projection of January (tan), implied CEA forecast using
A Quasi-Real Time Measure of the Average Effective Tariff Rate
[ad_1] The Yale Budget Lab regularly (’cause… Trump) updates the stated effective tariff rate. But what’s the actual effective tariff rate in effect given all
Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)
[ad_1] The Conference Board today: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by
Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”
[ad_1] That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers: There are three possible answers: First, it’s too early to tell. Most
What Happens If IEEPA Tariffs Are Rule Illegal?
[ad_1] Oral arguments before the appellate court take place this week. Suppose the tariffs invoked under IEEPA are struck down, then that decision would likely
Stay Tuned: World Trade for June
[ad_1] From CPB, data through May: Figure 1: World Trade Volume (blue), World Industrial Production (tan), both 2006=100., on log scale. Light orange shading denotes
Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)
[ad_1] The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by value)? From Joey Politano,