ECONOMY

UW Now Live: “Trumponomics” and the state of the U.S. economy”

[ad_1] This week’s livestream featuring Menzie Chinn and Lydia Cox, moderated by Mike Knetter, is Tuesday, Aug. 5, at 7 p.m. CDT (hosted by the
ECONOMY

EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured

[ad_1] Through 8/3: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.  Trade policy uncertainty, I can see why that’s risen. Economic
ECONOMY

Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?

[ad_1] Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators (recalling
ECONOMY

Consumers Vote on Economic Prospects

[ad_1] Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow the permanent income hypothesis
ECONOMY

Agent Chaos Strikes – Multidimensionally!

[ad_1] Policy uncertainty through 8/1: Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com. [ad_2] Source link
ECONOMY

Is It Seasonal Adjustment? | Econbrowser

[ad_1] CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I can’t…
ECONOMY

Downside Surprise in Employment Levels

[ad_1] Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data indicating
ECONOMY

Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Eve

[ad_1] Baker, Bloom and Davis and Caldara et al. measures: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale).
ECONOMY

Instantaneous Core Inflation Again Rising

[ad_1] Though not quite to February rates: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), core PCE deflator (market) (green) per
ECONOMY

CRFB CEA Watch | Econbrowser

[ad_1] CRFB spreadsheet here for now; to be updated. Figure 1: CBO GDP projection from January 2025 (black), implied CEA June forecast (blue), both in