Equipment and Structures Investment | Econbrowser
[ad_1] We’re about halfway into Q3. Nowcasts put equipment and structures investment — particularly forward looking investment — at near flat relative
If You Believe the CPS Employment Series Turns Down before the CES, Be Afraid
[ad_1] Personally, I’m not convinced, but if you are, then consider this graph: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from July release (bold
What Other BLS Commissioners Should’ve Been Fired (But Weren’t) Using the Trump Criterion?
[ad_1] Here’re other prior 2 month cumulative revisions, normalized by employment (after all, the country has been growing for the past 100
Core Inflation Nowcasts and Tracking
[ad_1] From Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, plus Bloomberg consensus – generally, acceleration in the q/q annualized: Figure 1: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized inflation of
Manufacturing on the Ropes? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since March. Figure 1: Manufacturing
“And you want to be my latex salesman?” (BLS edition)
[ad_1] I hear that Bannon is pushing Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni for BLS Commissioner. EJ Antoni: Source: Heritage Foundation, accessed 8/7/2025.
CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
[ad_1] Bill McBride’s assessment here. In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
[ad_1] You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun
How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?
[ad_1] Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing, tradewise, given the states’
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
[ad_1] From Cavallo et al. (Aug. 2025): Source: Cavallo, et al. (Aug 2, 2025). Some data consistent with an impact of tariffs: Figure 1: PCE-durables deflator (blue),