Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), February SPF median (light blue), NY Fed nowcast of 2/28 for Q1 (blue square), GDPNow nowcast of 3/6 (red triangle), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2/28 to GS estimate (pink square), Goldman Sachs tracking of 3/6 (light green inverted triangle), all in q/q AR, %. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
The adjusted GDPNow growth (q/q AR) is +0.55%, still essentially just above zero.
