We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it useful to take a look at various indices.
Figure 1: CPI (blue), CPI – food at home component (brown), and AIER Everyday Price Index (green), all 2024M01=1.00. Source: BLS, AIER.
On eggs:
Figure 2: Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2025 (blue square, left scale), OLS forecast based on price-lagged PPI relationship (red triangle), all in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (brown, right scale), and TradingEconomics forecast (2/13/2025) implied PPI for eggs (tan square), all in1991M12=100. Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.
No wonder CNN’s poll shows some dissatisfaction with progress in lowering prices (remember, he made the promise on price levels, not inflation).
