As of yesterday COB:
Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.
Figure 2: 10yr-2yr Treasury term spread (blue, left scale), ten year TIPS yield (red, right scale), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.
Inflation expectations (at least a proxy) are up, as expected. However, term spreads are relatively unchanged from before the election. In an earlier time, I might’ve thought this was indicating not much change in perceived growth rate of GDP, but now not so sure.
