That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today.
Here’s a picture of headline CPI and the “food at home” category.
Figure 1: Headline CPI (blue), and food at home (chartreuse), both in logs 2021M01=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The article is correct insofar as it uses the past tense – prices of groceries have rise. However, as Figure shows, food at home inflation has declined recently. Figure 2 depicts instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023), a=4, T-12).
Figure 2: Headline CPI instantaneous inflation (blue), and food at home (chartreuse). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
In fact, month-on-month food-at-home inflation was zero in February.
