Alternative Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down 17% y/y. Figure 1: Implied
“What New Have We Learned about US Dollar Dominance As a Reserve Currency?”
[ad_1] That’s the title of my keynote talk at the 27th INFER conference (Rome), an excellent exchange of ideas and comments on
Why We Teach International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Together
[ad_1] Or, why should a bunch of ICE agents running amok in a Hyundai-LG factory have an impact on trade policy uncertainty?
White House Tries to (Ineptly) Spin the Preliminary Benchmark Release
[ad_1] From the White House today: The benchmark revisions make clear the economy President Trump inherited was even weaker than we thought. Job
Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
[ad_1] Remember that the Preliminary Benchmark Revision is… Preliminary. While this is obvious, the implications are not necessarily so. In particular, if one is interested
“Is the US already in recession?”
[ad_1] Tej Parikh in FT inquires. He presents growth rates of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Below I show
Mid-Session Review Technical Supplement Is Out
[ad_1] As of yesterday, here. Here’s the Troika (OMB, CEA, Treasury) forecast, plotted against SPF, IMF, and GDPNow (9/4). CBO projections will be out later
How’s Manufacturing Doing? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Since “Liberation Day”, so-so: Figure 1: Manufacturing employment, production and nonsupervisory workers (blue), aggregate worker hours (green), manufacturing production (tan), real
Trouble in Estimating Seasonals As a Reason for the Low NFP Growth?
[ad_1] NEC Director Hassett makes reference to a GS note that indicates that August preliminary figures typically get revised up (NBCNews) The
“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession.”
[ad_1] If you think that’s Kevin Hassett opining, you’d be wrong. It’s actually CEA Chair Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008. NBER retrospectively determined that