Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs.
Prediction Markets, FWIW | Econbrowser
Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls. I would expect these odds to match, pretty closely, but
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last
Private NFP Nowcast | Econbrowser
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), nowcast based on error correction model using ADP-Stanford
Son of ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy”
Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,@mises , for highlighting a recent paper @profstonge
Instantaneous Inflation: PCE, Market Based PCE, HICP, CPI, and Chained CPI
With PCE deflators released today: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (blue), chained CPI (dark red), PCE deflator (bold black), PCE market based
This plane has landed safely
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close
Business Cycle Indicators – GDP and Private NFP
GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it). ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K. Figure 1: Nonfarm
Steven Kamin & Benedictus Clements: “The Biden-Harris Macroeconomic Record Is Getting a Bum Rap”
From AEI: …the US economy is indeed performing very well, and this can be seen most readily by comparing its performance with that of other