The Danger of Fed Credibility under Assault
[ad_1] If credibility is degraded, then tariff induced cost-push shocks are less likely to manifest as one-off price level increases, and more
WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”
[ad_1] Video of proceedings tomorrow (Tues, 9/16) on WisconsinEye. Source: Pawel Skrzypczynski, accessed 9/14/2025. Particpants: Menzie Chinn, an economics professor in UW-Madison’s La Follette School
EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
[ad_1] That’s the title of an article reprinted at the Heritage.com, by current BLS Commissioner-nominee EJ Antoni, …an increasing number of indicators say the recession
The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
[ad_1] Coffee prices up and away — in the US. Figure 1: Price of coffee, US city average (brown), BLS import price
CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
[ad_1] The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black),
The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”
[ad_1] That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre): He was referring primarily to the
Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
[ad_1] Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of
Sentiment Declines
[ad_1] Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence. [ad_2] Source link
Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth
[ad_1] From the CPI release: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), ERS forecast of January 2025 (blue square), of March
Instantaneous Core Inflation
[ad_1] Up. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE (green), T=12, a=4 per Eeckhout (2024).. [ad_2] Source link