The Recession Call Revisited | Econbrowser
There was a noisy minority of analysts thinking we were in, or imminently in, recession (see a list here). It’ll be interesting to see how
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to all by next summer. It
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0 | Econbrowser
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of GDP (blue), and as share
Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED. Figure 2: 10yr-2yr Treasury term
Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John Williamson
Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10% tariffs, in GDP and inflation
Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
From the National Corn Growers Association: U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together
Recession after the Election? | Econbrowser
Charles Payne joins the recession camp. Current indicators are not very supportive of an imminent recession: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50. Both markets accessed 7:05pm CT on 11/2/2024. I think
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 70.5 in October 2024 from a preliminary of