“People … have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s”
That’s from ZeroHedge. Contra, here are some data. Figure 1: Top panel Economic Policy Uncertainty index, Middle panel VIX, Bottom panel 75p-25p 1 year ahead
Monetary Policy Rates around the World
Some pictures for Econ 442, monetary policy module. Source: Eurofi. Source: Eurofi. Summary: Source: Dallas Fed DGEI. CFR Monetary Policy Tracker shows whether policy is
Wisconsin Employment Outperforming DoR November Forecast
As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), DoR forecast (tan +),
Math Is Hard! | Econbrowser
Steven Kopits writes: On the other hand, interest payments have risen from 9.5% of GDP in 2020 to 13.6% of GDP in 2023. That is
Estimates of r*
Who thinks it’s 4% or above? Figure 1: Estimates of r*, %. See description here. Source: Atlanta Fed. Source link
Why I Don’t Put Too Much Weight on the State Level Household Survey Employment Series
Just a picture: Figure 1: Civilian employment from Jan. ’24 release (blue), from Oct. ’23 (tan), May ’22 (green), 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED.
Wisconsin Employment in January | Econbrowser
January employment numbers, incorporating annual revisions, are out for Wisconsin. Here’s a picture of some indicators. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators for February
January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus. With combined downward revisions in the prior two months totaling 168
February 2024 Real-Time Sahm Rule Indicator
Still below threshold: Figure 1: Real time Sahm rule indicator (blue), and 0.5% threshold (red dashed). NBER defined after peak to trough recession dates shaded
Biden-Trump: Some Economic Comparisons | Econbrowser
GDP, employment, manufacturing, debt, unemployment, etc. Figure 1: GDP in bn.2017$ under Biden relative to first quarter of administration (blue), GDPNow for 3/7 (sky blue