Republicans/Lean-Republicans and the Biden Effect on Economic Sentiment
Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation: Figure 1: University of Michigan Economic
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle
Russian Growth Slows | Econbrowser
From BOFIT today (translated by Google): GROWTH IN TOTAL PRODUCTION HAS DECLINED IN RECENT MONTHSAccording to the monthly estimate published by the Russian Ministry of
“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters. Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters poll of bond market experts,
Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the path
Alternative Measures of NFP | Econbrowser
Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this change
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”. Figure 1: M2 velocity calculated using GDP (blue),
More on r* | Econbrowser
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri: Source: BIS Quarterly Review (March 2024). Note: Here, r*
Inflation in February | Econbrowser
Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, while headline at consensus. Figure 1: CPI headline instantaneous inflation (a=4,T=12) (black), core (sky
GDP and Treasury Yields in the Administration Forecast
Forecast finalized in November (roughly same time as CBO’s projections, released in February). First, GDP: Figure 1: GDP (black), Administration forecast (red squares), CBO projection