“Fake” Economic Activity | Econbrowser
[ad_1] A common refrain I see in some conservative circles is that employment gains or GDP are juiced by “fake” activity, of which government spending
Did Government Employment Account for Most of September’s Employment Gains?
[ad_1] ZeroHedge and EJ Antoni assert yes, relying on the household series… Figure 1: Total change in civilian employment (bold black), change attributable to government
Business Cycle Indicators – with September Employment
[ad_1] The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the
In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
[ad_1] Here’s the current situation: Figure 1: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in
NFP Blowout | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two
Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
[ad_1] My guess for private NFP: Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source:
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures Compared
[ad_1] ADP surprised on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus): Not sure what this means, but ADP is outstripping the official series, which is itself
Dollar Share of World FX Reserves (thru Q2)
[ad_1] From the IMF (9/27/2024): Figure 1: USD share of total reserves as reported (light blue), and USD share plus 60% of unallocated share (bold
Business Cycle Indicators – August Monthly GDP
[ad_1] Here’s a snapshot of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment
Manufacturing in Recession? (Revisited) | Econbrowser
[ad_1] High frequency indicators (PMI, etc.) suggest — and have suggested — a slowdown in manufacturing. Still, other indicators indicate sideways trending. Here’s a picture,