Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy
[ad_1] In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton
Sentiment Declines | Econbrowser
[ad_1] U.Michigan index revised down from preliminary. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment at or Below April 2025 Levels, Personal Income ex-Transfers Below
[ad_1] With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Personal
Wisconsin Hammered by Tariffs? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right. Figure 1: Panel A: Average effective tariff rate, % (black),
The Safety of the Nation Depends on … Upholstered Furniture and Bathroom Vanities
[ad_1] The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT: United States would begin imposing a 50 percent tariff on
Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
[ad_1] Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month). Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark NFP (bold blue), industrial
$20 bn Credit Line to Argentina?
[ad_1] Why? Is Argentina central to US national security or economic interests? This Bloomberg article doesn’t explain the economic reasoning. And unless
Miran on r* | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Yesterday, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on leave from the White House CEA, spoke on
Guest Contribution: “FAIT, Shortfalls, and the Federal Reserve’s Strategy Review”
[ad_1] Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer
The Availability of Quarterly GDP Data for the US: Memo to EJ Antoni
[ad_1] Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions using quarterly data, here are the GDP data series for the US I am