Six Measures of Core Instantaneous Inflation
With the core PCE deflator, we have these measures of what’s happening to core. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan),
When You Hear a Critique of Mainstream Economists, Run
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge: The question is whether policies being considered by the next Presidential administration will lead to “Trumpflation” or not.
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the
Russia: Policy Rate at 21%, Official Inflation Rate at 10% (m/m annualized)
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate.
Natural (but Stupid) Experiments? | Econbrowser
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider the sectoral impacts of a
Instantaneous Consumer Inflation in October
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue), chained CPI (red), HICP (green), PCE deflater (bold black),
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based
The Echo Chamber of Stupid: “Recession since 2022”
Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Professors EJ Antony and Peter St Onge recently published an excellent study, “Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output
The Return of Economic Policy Uncertainty
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations begin. Figure 1: Economic Policy
Guest Contribution: “The anti-incumbent wave is real. But it’s not (really) about inflation”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Michael