Project 2025: So All Your Hurricane Projections Can Look Like This
Envisaging Milton under Trump 2.0: Source: NOAA. Following: Source:Time, Feb 1, 2020. From Project 2025, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise on page 666: The
GDPNow Up to 3.2% SAAR
GDPNow up from 2.5% on 10/1 to 3.2% on 10/8 (q/q AR), on the basis of auto sales and employment situation releases. Source: Atlanta Fed,
No Recession in 2022H1: Edition MMMXXVII
Reader Steven Kopits writes: Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since. No negative
Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area, as of 10/4/2024
The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more recent
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation (Aug 5): “I would not be surprised if a recession is backdated to July or the current month”
From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up. Figure 1:
Will Household Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?
Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3. Figure 1: Household net worth (blue), nowcast
State of the Macro Economy, 10/6/2024: 19 Indicators and 4 Nowcasts
NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES
“Fake” Economic Activity | Econbrowser
A common refrain I see in some conservative circles is that employment gains or GDP are juiced by “fake” activity, of which government spending is
Did Government Employment Account for Most of September’s Employment Gains?
ZeroHedge and EJ Antoni assert yes, relying on the household series… Figure 1: Total change in civilian employment (bold black), change attributable to government employment