Residential Investment: Nowcast down 5.9% q/q AR
[ad_1] Based on residential investment construction July release (starts 1.428 mn > 1.29 mn Bbg consensus; permits 1.354mn < 1.39mn Bbg consensus):
EJ Antoni in August: “…an increasing number of indicators say the recession has arrived in the broader economy.”
[ad_1] trillions of dollars that appear to be economic growth are just borrowing from the future — a debt that will eventually have to be
“Reserves, Sanctions and Tariffs in a Time of Uncertainty”
[ad_1] Is gold supplanting the dollar? Did the use of sanction by the US reduce holdings of dollars by targeted central banks? Did the 2018-19
Coffee Drinkers of America, Unite
[ad_1] Here’re the July PPI and CPI for coffee. Figure 1: PPI for roasted coffee, n.s.a. (blue), and CPI for coffee, s.a. (tan), all in
WSJ Op-Ed on Implications of EJ Antoni’s Views on Inflation
[ad_1] From Bunn and Pomerleau/Tax Foundation, “Will E.J. Antoni Raise Your Taxes?”: Every year the IRS adjusts more than a dozen tax thresholds to account
PPI => CPI? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] With the outsized jump in the PPI, the natural question to ask is whether this implies a jump in the CPI. The evidence is
Wisconsin under Trump Trade War 2.0
[ad_1] Manufacturing employment, exports declines. Employment release from DWD today. [ad_2] Source link
A Man Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 Is Still Odds on Favorite for BLS Commissioner
[ad_1] It’s really a statement on our times. Source; Kalshi, accessed 8/15/2025. As noted in an excellent article by Lauren Gurley in WaPo, these are
Michigan Survey: Sentiment Down, Inflation Expectations Up
[ad_1] Preliminary readings for August. Not particularly good. Figure 1: One year ahead CPI inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), Consumer Sentiment
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial Production, Retail Sales
[ad_1] The picture as of today’s releases, with IP, retail sales below consensus. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), implied NFP Bloomberg consensus