Federal Interest Payments: To the Public vs. To the Rest-of-Federal Government
Ode to an EJ Antoni graph (apologies to Keats). Total interest payments have risen substantially, and this shows up in a scary picture: Figure 1:
Dollar Demise Predicted | Econbrowser
Joe Biden is dethroning King Dollar in real time. The US dollar’s financial dominance is under siege from a uniquely bad combination of foreign and
It’s Almost as If Some People Were Rooting for Recession (Part 2)
“Latest Q3 Nowcasts: ATL 2.5% (2.0% prev) NY 2.49% (1.94 prev) STL 2.05% (1.65 prev) It’s going to take stellar consumer spending numbers for Aug
Wisconsin Economic Sit-Rep | Econbrowser
DWD released employment numbers for September today. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real
Eric Hovde: In Recession | Econbrowser
Video today. 55% of Americans believe they are in a recession. Why? Because they have been in one. Most indicators suggest otherwise. Here are some
Has American Economic Output Been in Decline since 2022?
This is the premise of a new paper by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I have been trying to find a deflator that can
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
Mid-October Reading on Business Cycle Indicators – NBER BCDC and Alternatives
Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured | Econbrowser
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)? One way to assess credibility is to see whether people’s expectations of
WSJ October Survey: GDP On the Rise
Only one forecaster projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Here’s the WSJ mean forecast compared to nowcasts: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ October