“More and more market participants don’t believe the Fed anymore.”
That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues: Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at 3%
“Putin’s Central Banker Angers Russian Elite With Rate Hikes”
Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.” Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on the
Business Cycle Indicators for November 2024
Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment
FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow of 12/18 (light
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today: Source: Kalshi, accessed 7pm CT 19 December 2024. Source link
Canada and Recession | Econbrowser
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here
How Competitive Is China? | Econbrowser
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively. The standard measure is the CPI deflated trade weighted
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment
If You Thought Construction Costs Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Average hourly wages in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (CPI deflated): Figure 1: Average hourly earnings in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in
If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide. Figure 1: Farm worker wage, 2023$ (blue, left log