What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve
Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line): Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury. Over time: Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue,
2 April 2025: An Event Study
Odds of a recession in 2025: Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT. Polymarket confirms: Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT. The recession
Further Inversion of the Treasury Yield Curve
As of close today: Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury. Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr
Doug Irwin: “…bigger than Smoot-Hawley”
From Bloomberg: “This is going to be much bigger than Smoot-Hawley,” says Douglas Irwin, an economic historian at Dartmouth College, who points to both the expected
Negative GDP Growth in Q1?
GDPNow as of today: Here’s a picture of the level of GDP implied by these nowcasts and tracking forecasts. Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow
Forward Looking Implications of Consumption Behavior in the Trump 2.0 Era
Aggregate consumption drops as income ex-current transfers rises. The pattern of disaggregated consumption pattern suggests tariff-induced front-loading drove some of the support for consumption in
Bordo-Siklos Central Bank Credibility, using Michigan Expectations
Using final March numbers: Figure 1: Bordo-Siklos measure of central bank credibility, using 5 year Michigan expectations (blue). Assumes 2.45% CPI inflation is consistent with
Term Spreads, Yield Curves, 28 March 2025
Big drop in one year to two year part of the spectrum suggests deceleration in growth in a year. Time series: Source link
Why 2025 is not 2022 (Short-Horizon Recession Forecasting-Wise)
Reader Bruce Hall comments on this post showing the implications of a short horizon probit model of recession likelihood. Perhaps I didn’t remember correctly, but
Near Horizon Recession Probability | Econbrowser
I run a probit regression of a NBER peak-to-trough recession dummy on contemporaneous Michigan sentiment (FRED variable UMCSENT, and final reading for March) and the