Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index stands
Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar
Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close). Figure 1: S&P500 (blue, left log scale),
IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down
In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down by
Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”: “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal
Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin. Manufacturing and agriculture
Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No dearth of
How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans. Figure 1: CPI – all urban (blue), CPI food at home (green), AIER Everyday Price Index (tan),
2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April survey
“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
From Cui, NBC: President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month. The on-again, off-again trade escalation with other nations
Dollar Dominance No More? | Econbrowser
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of the