Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it
What — If Anything — Do Re-inverting Term Spreads Mean?
Open question – we’re not quite there yet. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue), and 10yr-2yr spread (red), both in %. Source: Treasury via
No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation)
And CBO’s January projection: Here’s implied GDP using the Budget Lab’s analysis, and the CBO’s current law projection: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO January
EPU and Expected Inflation | Econbrowser
From election day, five year inflation breakeven up 33 bps; EPU up 231. What could go wrong? Figure 1: Top graph – EPU (blue), 7
NBC News: “USDA says it accidentally fired officials working on bird flu and is trying to rehire them”
From NBC News. I know the Trump Administration doesn’t care about ordinary people dying from malnutrition, lack of access to health care, plane crashes, and
Anthony Diercks, Daniel Soques and Jing Cynthia Wu: “Perfect Recession Indicators”
From the abstract to the paper: Define a perfect recession predictor as one that correctly predicts every recession and does not falsely signal a recession
Policy Uncertainty in the US, Globally
as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis’s EPU. I was in Europe, and conversations were in high gear about how things now seemed. And text
AP: “Trump begins firings of FAA air traffic control staff just weeks after fatal DC plane crash”
Article here. When I read this, I’m reminded: In 2015, during the Obama administration, a new safety rule was adopted requiring electronically controlled pneumatic brakes
The Russian Economy: How Many Contingent Liabilities?
It seems like a funny question to ask given Russian government debt to GDP isn’t that large. Craig Kennedy argues that taking into account forced
A Trade War Interpreted in a Blanchard IS-LM Model
I was promised an all-out trade war by Trump, and all I got was a lousy 10% tariff on China, and promises of a concept