The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“: As
CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”
That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I
“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series
CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts
CBO released its ten year outlook today. Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey. Figure
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by
Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast
From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median (green),
Chinn and Irwin: “International Economics” (Cambridge Univ Press), Available Now
Are you teaching international economics in the spring? Or just want to learn more about the field? Consider adopting/purchasing this new textbook, by myself and Douglas
The CPI Rose…as Did Wages (mid-2022 to 2024)
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni shared this graph of the CPI level: Aside from including the pandemic era price level, I thought about what happened to
Instantaneous Inflation | Econbrowser
Headline up, core down. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue) chained CPI (lilac), PCE deflator (green), PCE deflator market prices
Reconciling the CES NFP with CPS Employment Adjusted to NFP Concept
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni has been describing the gap between the establishment NFP series and the CPS employment series as the basis for evidence of