EPU, News Sentiment, Term Spreads, VIX
Data available as of today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), and centered 7 day moving average (red, right scale), SF Fed News Sentiment index
Nowcasts accounting for Gold Imports
Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), February SPF median (light blue), NY Fed nowcast of 2/28 for Q1 (blue square), GDPNow nowcast
EPU through 3/5
Highest 7 day moving average since Covid…(not sure if that date coincides with “bleach”): Source link
Is a Recession Still Coming?
Despite the lack of coincident indicators suggesting a recession’s onset (we’ll see more on Friday), there are plenty of articles now suggesting an imminent recession:
ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms
+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (although
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, yesterday’s lecture: Main Impacts• Reduced immigration (legal, undocumented)– Reduced labor force– Reduced consumption– Reduced inflows into Social Security,Medicare trust funds• Mass deportation (increase
The Outlook for Grocery Prices and Eggs (pre-tariff)
So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ERS, TradingEconomics: Figure 1: CPI food-at-home component (bold black), ERS January forecast (light
Trump’s Economic Team and Tariff-fest 2025
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome. Notes: Clockwise from top
(Would’a Been) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
Update to this post. In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump. Notes: Tax increase associated with announced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a
Spot the “Events” in this Event Study
Dow Jones: TradingEconomics as of 10am CT, 3/4/2025. Source link