An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin.
Manufacturing and agriculture play an outsized role in Wisconsin’s economy, making exports essential. Yet since the mid-2010s, the value of those exports has fallen both statewide and in the Milwaukee area, the top exporting region in Wisconsin. Now newly enacted U.S. tariffs are triggering retaliatory actions by some major trading partners, making 2025 a bumpy ride so far for many Wisconsin businesses and farmers.
As indicated in the graph below, Wisconsin never really recovered in real export terms from the first Trump trade war, which started in April/May 2018.
From my own perspective, Wisconsin as a medium industry heavy and trade dependent state is going to suffer as it did after the 2018 tariffs.
Comparisons with the trade war of 2018 are going to be misleading. We haven’t even seen tariffs effectively implemented in the data through March. “Liberation Day” was in April…And here is trade policy uncertainty (as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis):
Trade policy uncertainty in March dwarfs any seen in the trade war of 2018-19.
