Here’s the cumulative change since 6/3/2024:
Figure 1: Change since June 1, 2024 in 10yr-2yr term spread (bold black), contribution to change from 10 year yield (blue bars), from 2 year yield (tan), all in percentage points. Source: Treasury via FRED, and author’s calculations.
What does this mean? Who knows (as recounted in this FT article). Not sure too much can be inferred, as I conclude from looking at previous instances of bear- and bull- steepening.
Here’s another depiction of what’s happened to spreads, along the entire spectrum.
Source: US Treasury.
By the way, here’s another FT article on the length of the inversion…
