From the Michigan survey of consumers:
Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale), SF Fed News Sentiment index (black, right scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for sentiment is preliminary; for news sentiment, through 9/11. Source: University of Michigan, SF Fed.
As economic news deteriorated in August, Republican/lean Republican sentiment fell as anticipated. However, Democratic/lean Democratic sentiment rose. This shift seems to occur when assessed probabilities for a Democratic presidential candidate rise.
Source: PredictIt, accessed 9/15/2024.
The disparity in responses is more obvious when looking at expectations, as noted by Goldman Sachs in their 9/13 note.
Figure 2: Consumer expectations for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for expectations is preliminary; for news sentiment, through 9/11.Source: University of Michigan.
Since July the increase is 10% for sentiment (average of current conditions and expectations), and 15% for expectations. Note that the survey was taken before the debate.
New poll out from FT-Ross School/UMich indicates that Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in terms of views on economic management, although the difference is within the statistical margin of error. (FT-Michigan Ross poll • Poll of 1,002 registered voters conducted Sep 11 – 12; margin of error ±3.1pp. Those who said neither, both or not sure were not included).
Source: FT, 9/16/2024.
