{"id":348949,"date":"2025-10-10T14:45:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T19:45:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/10\/sentiment-mired-at-global-financial-crisis-levels\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T14:45:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T19:45:16","slug":"sentiment-mired-at-global-financial-crisis-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/10\/sentiment-mired-at-global-financial-crisis-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"

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With today\u2019s release of University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary) data, we have this picture.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at \u201cLiberation Day\u201d Source: UMichigan, Gallup,\u00a0Conference Board<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The above graph is normalized on 2021M01-2025M02 period mean and standard deviations. Over a longer horizon, we have the following picture of the (unstandardized) Michigan Sentiment index.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue). October value is preliminary. Red dashed line at selected critical events. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: UMichigan, and NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n

I can hardly wait to see how sentiment evolves as Trump re-ignites the trade war along the China dimension. We should see something EPU-wise sooner.<\/p>\n

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