{"id":348810,"date":"2025-10-07T10:22:26","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T15:22:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/07\/not-so-great-expectations-farm-edition\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T10:22:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T15:22:26","slug":"not-so-great-expectations-farm-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/07\/not-so-great-expectations-farm-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n


\n\t\t\t\t
\n <\/p>\n
\n

The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers<\/a>, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu<\/a>!). Farmer sentiment is pretty low relative to the exuberance note in the aftermath of Trump\u2019s election, as this Purdue\/CME survey<\/a> released today shows:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Expectations are low in part because of the sharp decrease in inflation adjusted (CPI) commodity receipts over the previous two years, combined with rising input costs.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong> Farm net cash income (bold black line), government support (tan bar), rest of income (blue bar), expenses (green bar), all in bn2025$. 2025 figure is ERS estimate. Source: ERS USDA<\/a> (Sept 2025).<\/em><\/p>\n

Were it not for (estimated) government support, net (cash) income would be flat, in real terms). Moreover, if one plotted the same graph with government support as a share of net income, it would become clearer how dependent the ag sector is on support, given the trade war.<\/p>\n

(China has not bought any soybeans since May, and in September has bought none, and has not commitments to buy \u2014 a first in decades.)<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


\n\t\t <\/p>\n