{"id":348788,"date":"2025-10-06T19:04:34","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T00:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/06\/an-interesting-correlation-heavy-truck-sales-growth-as-recession-indicator\/"},"modified":"2025-10-06T19:04:34","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T00:04:34","slug":"an-interesting-correlation-heavy-truck-sales-growth-as-recession-indicator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/06\/an-interesting-correlation-heavy-truck-sales-growth-as-recession-indicator\/","title":{"rendered":"An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-58277\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Following up on the <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/sometimes-i-think-trump-is-determined-to-push-the-us-into-recession-heavy-truck-tariff-edition\">drop in heavy truck sales in August<\/a>, here\u2019s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER peak-to-trough) on current 12 month\u00a0 heavy truck sales growth:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/concurrenthvytrucksales.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58278\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/concurrenthvytrucksales.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/concurrenthvytrucksales.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/concurrenthvytrucksales-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/concurrenthvytrucksales-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/concurrenthvytrucksales-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Figure 1: Estimated probability of NBER recession using probit on heavy truck sales growth (blue). Red line at current value of 0.28. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Notice, using this model and a 28% threshold yields only on false positive: 2016.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/and-interesting-correlation-heavy-truck-sales-growth-as-recession-indicator\" title=\"2:43 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-10-06T14:43:33-07:00\">October 6, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/and-interesting-correlation-heavy-truck-sales-growth-as-recession-indicator\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here\u2019s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":348789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348788"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348788\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/348789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}