{"id":348750,"date":"2025-10-04T19:10:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T00:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/04\/delaying-employment-situation-release-cpi-release-next\/"},"modified":"2025-10-04T19:10:56","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T00:10:56","slug":"delaying-employment-situation-release-cpi-release-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/04\/delaying-employment-situation-release-cpi-release-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-58259\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can\u2019t answer that, but <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/september-private-nonfarm-payroll-employment-according-to-adp\">given the ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab release<\/a>, one could understand why (an 82K downside surprise is not earthshaking, but not reassuring either).<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi betting now indicates a 20.8 day shutdown. That will make it such that the CPI and PPI releases are delayed as well (10\/15 and 10\/16 respectively.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/govtshutdown_4oct25.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58260\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/govtshutdown_4oct25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"848\" height=\"418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/govtshutdown_4oct25.png 848w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/govtshutdown_4oct25-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/govtshutdown_4oct25-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/govtshutdown_4oct25-624x308.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 848px) 100vw, 848px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxgovshutlength\/days-of-government-shutdown\/kxgovshutlength-26jan01\">Kalshi,<\/a> accessed 10\/4\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>For NFP employment, the consensus estimate was 50-54K, hardly something to clap about. My nowcast based on q\/q changes in ADP private NFP is shown <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/nowcasting-private-nfp-for-september\">here<\/a>. For CPI, here\u2019re the nowcasts (based on a statistical model run at the Cleveland Fed, not judgmental).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/instantcpi_sep25.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58261\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/instantcpi_sep25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/instantcpi_sep25.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/instantcpi_sep25-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/instantcpi_sep25-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/instantcpi_sep25-624x419.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Instantaneous inflation per <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4554153\">Eeckhout (2023)<\/a> for headline CPI (blue), and for core CPI (tan). September observation is Cleveland nowcast at monthly frequency as of 10\/4\/2025. Source: BLS and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/indicators-and-data\/inflation-nowcasting\">Cleveland Fed<\/a>, accessed 10\/4\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/delaying-employment-situation-release-cpi-release-next\" title=\"3:29 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-10-04T15:29:19-07:00\">October 4, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/10\/delaying-employment-situation-release-cpi-release-next\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can\u2019t answer that, but given<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":348751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348750"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/348751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}