{"id":348674,"date":"2025-10-01T20:56:32","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T01:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/nowcasting-private-nfp-for-september\/"},"modified":"2025-10-01T20:56:32","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T01:56:32","slug":"nowcasting-private-nfp-for-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/nowcasting-private-nfp-for-september\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowcasting Private NFP for September"},"content":{"rendered":"

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We won\u2019t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which missed consensus by 84K on the downside<\/a>)<\/p>\n

I think the answer is yes\u2026and no. As noted by other observers, the month-on-month correlation of ADP and BLS series is low. However, the quarter-on-quarter is fairly high. A regression of BLS series on ADP series (3 month log differences) yields:<\/p>\n

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Over this period, the q\/q growth rates are highly correlated, and have roughly unit elasticity. Using these estimates, I generate the following nowcast.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Private nonfarm payroll employment, implied preliminary benchmark (black), nowcast (light blue), +\/- 1 standard error interval. Source: BLS, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

While the point estimate suggests a decrease in employment, when the report comes out, the wide standard error interval suggests that a positive reading is as possible as negative.<\/p>\n

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