{"id":348568,"date":"2025-09-29T12:48:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T17:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/29\/trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp-trajectories\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T12:48:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T17:48:13","slug":"trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp-trajectories","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/29\/trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp-trajectories\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Shock on GDP vs. \u201cCore GDP\u201d Trajectories"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gdppix90.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58191\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gdppix90.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gdppix90.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gdppix90-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gdppix90-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gdppix90-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), GDPNow (9\/26) (light blue square), St. Louis nowcast (9\/26) (orange triangle), IMF WEO (July) (green circle). Source: Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed, IMF World Economic Outlook, July update, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>One might be tempted to see a return to the pre-Trump GDP trajectory (especially if one relies on the Atlanta Fed\u2019s nowcast), but it\u2019s not clear to me\u00a0 this path is sustainable, especially when we consider aggregate demand\u2019s evolution, as measured by final sales to private domestic purchasers, what Jason Furman refers to as \u201cCore GDP\u201d. I think that particularly in these times, focusing on this measure is advisable, given the measurement issues attendant with imports and inventories in the front-running of tariffs.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/finsalesprivdompix_sep25.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58192\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/finsalesprivdompix_sep25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/finsalesprivdompix_sep25.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/finsalesprivdompix_sep25-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/finsalesprivdompix_sep25-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/finsalesprivdompix_sep25-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow nowcast of 9\/26 (light blue square), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As this graph demonstrates, even with the fairly upbeat Atlanta Fed nowcast, private domestic aggregate demand has not returned to its pre-shock trajectory.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/09\/trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), GDPNow (9\/26) (light blue<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":348569,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348568"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348568\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/348569"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}