Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (\u201cLiberation Day\u201d month).<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Implied preliminary benchmark NFP (bold blue), industrial production (red), personal income ex-current transfers (bold light green), manufacturing and trade industry sales (black) monthly GDP (pink), civilian employment, 3 month centered moving average of smooth population controls version (bold orange), consumption (light blue), and coincident index (chartreuse), all in logs 2025M04=0 (normalized to \u201cLiberation Day\u201d). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS,\u00a0 and Federal Reserve, BEA, Census, Philadelphia Fed via FRED, SP Global Market Insights (9\/2\/2025), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n High frequency indicators suggest a slowdown in mid-September (which is end of Q3).<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI (blue), and Baumeister-Levia-Leon-Sims WECI plus trend growth of 2% (tan), both in %. Source: Dallas Fed via FRED, Weekly State Indexes<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Given the Q2 3rd GDP release, likely that real consumption will rise in August. Still, that\u2019s backward looking, while the WEI and WECI indicate deceleration in September.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/recindic_shortaug25a.png\")
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