{"id":348172,"date":"2025-09-16T23:17:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T04:17:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/16\/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-september\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T23:17:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T04:17:10","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/16\/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-september\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), NFP preliminary benchmark revision (blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), Bloomberg consensus industrial production of 8\/14, (red square), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q2 second release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9\/2\/<\/em>2025 release), and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (tan), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source:\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [2]<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q2 second release,<\/em>\u00a0and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":348173,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348172"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348172\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/348173"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}