The hangover from the paper bitcoin summer<\/a> delusion has arrived, swiftly and painfully. We see it, not in the bitcoin price, which is once more calmly and unremarkably ticking upward \u2014 pushing up against $117,000<\/a> Tuesday evening \u2014 but in the stock prices of bitcoin treasury companies. They\u2019re all getting slaughtered<\/em>: Look at the graphs of $MSTR, Metaplanet, $NAKA, H100, Smarter Web Company and they all look the same \u2014 shitcoin-style pump into the heavens, followed by a drawn-out decline back to where they started (or well below it).\u00a0<\/p>\n For a while there, we \u2014 and the rest of Wall Street \u2014 thought anyone could arbitrage financial markets. Issue shares at above their intrinsic value; buy bitcoin; repeat.<\/em> For this vertiginous summer fling, Wall Street was paying more than a dollar for a dollar\u2019s worth of bitcoin, and everyone\u2019s eyes lit up with dollar signs; this is a trade that, if you\u2019re able to, you\u2019ll happily do all day long.\u00a0<\/p>\n But now that that\u2019s over, there\u2019ll be hell to pay \u2014 and the devil is already out kicking ass and taking names.\u00a0<\/p>\n Oh, and it\u2019s not nice to kick a guy who\u2019s already down (and certainly not when that guy is in some sense your boss\u2026) but given that $NAKA fell a whopping 50% the other day after the S3 PIPE shares restriction period ended<\/a> \u2014 having already collapsed some 87% from its May pump-and-dump peak \u2014 it\u2019d be remiss of us price therapists<\/a> not<\/em> to take a second look.<\/p>\n So, with the outstanding, tradeable float of shares increased overnight some 50x \u2014 and, one would suppose, plenty of second-layer PIPE \u201cinsiders<\/a>\u201d wanna dump-dump-duuuuump \u2014 the formula was pretty simple: lots of extra supply meet no demand equals collapsing<\/em> price. In bitcoin treasury company analyst Adam Livingston\u2019s words<\/a>: \u201cAnd you get a perfect physics lesson here: add mass, you lose altitude.\u201d<\/p>\n 5. \u201cTreasury mania is over!\u201d Says the critics who have been fading the treasury strategy since we invested in Metaplanet 18 months ago at $15m market cap. The treasury play is just getting started and your lack of vision is why you missed it the first time and will miss it the\u2026<\/p>\n \u2014 David Bailey\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf7 $1.0mm\/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) September 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n As usual, bitcoin didn\u2019t care: It jumped almost 2% today<\/a>, on no material news, after a brief fling downward off its current $116,000 stablecoin pattern. As Bitcoin Magazine Pro\u2019s Matt Crosby says in a recent video, bitcoin price is \u201cpoised for breakout<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n The same cannot be said for the poor treasury companies.<\/p>\n Even best-in-class Saylor\u2019s Strategy ($MSTR) is struggling \u2014 as it has since operation offload-on-retail began last year; Strategy is gobbling up coins by the hundreds<\/a>, yet the mNAV compresses more and more, hitting an (unadjusted) yearly low of 1.27<\/a>. We\u2019re quickly getting to the point where the stock premium (i.e., the source of all treasury company magic<\/a>) is gone, and the treasury companies become expensive, glorified ETFs.<\/p>\n \u201cAlways have been,\u201d the meme world might retort.<\/p>\n Back to our beloved frog, Nakamoto. Baaaaaad <\/em>things happened to it recently. This is a nasty chart:\u00a0<\/p>\n Printing infinite number of copiable paper against a non-credible bitcoin strategy could never have ended any other way. Congrats, NAKA leadership; you wasted six months (or more) of prime bull market real estate playing high finance, and now you\u2019re punished for it.<\/p>\n The delusion that was bitcoin treasury strategy has ended, and the NAKA strategy \u2014 running the mNAV-squared treasury strategy<\/a> \u2014 has squarely suffered because of it. (Though, as of this writing, $NAKA is up 20% on the day<\/a> from its extreme<\/em> crazy low\u2026 yah-yah, nobody cares.)<\/p>\n\n
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