{"id":348069,"date":"2025-09-13T15:53:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T20:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/13\/the-trump-economy-now-dead-in-the-water\/"},"modified":"2025-09-13T15:53:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T20:53:39","slug":"the-trump-economy-now-dead-in-the-water","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/13\/the-trump-economy-now-dead-in-the-water\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump Economy Now: \u201cDead in the water\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

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That\u2019s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video<\/a>) (h\/t Philip Webre):<\/p>\n

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He was referring primarily to the labor market:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm payroll employment as reported by CES (bold black), Preliminary benchmark revision with monthly changed \u201cwedged in\u201d over the 2024M03-25M03 period (red), estimated preliminary benchmark using midpoint of Wells Fargo estimated revision (green), and GS estimate of final benchmark revision (tan), all in 000\u2019s, s.a.\u00a0 Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Vacancies to Unemployed Ratio (blue line). Horizontal light blue line at 1.0 value. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

And manufacturing employment:<\/p>\n

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Figure 3: Manufacturing employment, all employees, official (light blue), implied preliminary benchmark (bold black), QCEW seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 over 2021M03-2025M03 period (green), and ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory (red), all in 000\u2019s, s.a.<\/p>\n

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