{"id":347995,"date":"2025-09-11T06:54:34","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T11:54:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/11\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-econbrowser-3\/"},"modified":"2025-09-11T06:54:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T11:54:34","slug":"alternative-business-cycle-indicators-econbrowser-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/11\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-econbrowser-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Alternative Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down 17% y\/y.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (tan), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source:\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [2]<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q2 second release,<\/em>\u00a0and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Heavy truck sales (black, left log scale), and 5 month centered moving average (light blue, left log scale), both 000\u2019s, SAAR, year on year growth rate (burgundy, right scale). Source: Census via FRED, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

While heavy truck sales are down relative to recent peak, they aren\u2019t yet at rates associated with recessions.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down 17% y\/y. Figure 1:\u00a0Implied<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":347996,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347995"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}