<\/span><\/p>\n He presents growth rates of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Below I show the same indicators in levels (where I’ve replaced the official NFP series with the implied preliminary benchmark NFP using Wells Fargo estimates).<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll – estimated preliminary benchmark revision (bold blue), NFP official (thin blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade industry sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), all log normalized to 2025M04=0. Estimated preliminary benchmark is based on midpoint of Wells Fargo range of downward revision. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q2 second release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9\/2\/<\/em>2025 release), and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n I normalize on April 2025 because that’s the peak in civilian employment, and there’s some evidence<\/a> that civilian employment peaks before NFP in real time, just before recessions.<\/p>\n It’s clear that nonfarm payroll employment growth has slowed to a crawl, a slowdown more pronounced if one used the official series. We have the official preliminary benchmark revision on Tuesday (9\/9), and the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark on 9\/19.<\/p>\n The evolution of civilian employment is shown below.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/recindic_aug25altalt.png\")
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/civiian_emp.png\")
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