{"id":347810,"date":"2025-09-05T17:45:52","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T22:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/05\/why-did-mr-trump-say-before-the-employment-release-the-real-numberswill-be-in-a-year-from-now-on\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T17:45:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T22:45:52","slug":"why-did-mr-trump-say-before-the-employment-release-the-real-numberswill-be-in-a-year-from-now-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/05\/why-did-mr-trump-say-before-the-employment-release-the-real-numberswill-be-in-a-year-from-now-on\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Did Mr. Trump Say before the Employment Release \u201cthe real numbers\u201d\u2026\u201dwill be in a year from now on\u201d?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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[source<\/a>] Answer: Because, by virtue of the Executive Office of the President getting the release numbers the night before, he knew the numbers were going to be pretty bad (+22K < +75K Bloomberg consensus). (By the way, if I as a EOP staff member gave away market moving news before the official release, I would\u2019ve been fired, and prosecuted. Just sayin\u2019).<\/p>\n

Let me show how bad the data look, along a variety of indicators.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm payroll employment from CES (bold black), Bloomberg consensus estimate (pink +), estimated preliminary benchmark revision based on Wells Fargo estimate (light blue), CPS data adjusted to NFP concept (tan), and covered QCEW employment, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (green), all in 000\u2019s. Estimated preliminary benchmark revision using midpoint of Wells Fargo estimate of revision of -475K to -790K. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, Wells Fargo, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

How do the growth rates compare? Below is a picture of q\/q annualized growth rates (except for QCEW and CPS series, which are y\/y).<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Quarter-on-Quarter annualized growth rate of Nonfarm payroll employment from CES (bold black), Bloomberg consensus estimate (pink +), estimated preliminary benchmark revision based on Wells Fargo estimate (light blue), CPS data adjusted to NFP concept, year-on-year (tan), and covered QCEW employment, seasonally adjusted using X-13 by author, year-on-year (green), all in 000\u2019s. Estimated preliminary benchmark revision using midpoint of Wells Fargo estimate of revision of -475K to -790K. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, Wells Fargo, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The general message from the picture is that these various measures of employment growth are all decelerating.<\/p>\n

As noted in my previous post on employment and the business cycle<\/a>, the mean absolute revision for the BLS CES measure going from first to third release is 40K (2022-24). That means a 95% confidence interval would encompass -62 to +102.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] [source] Answer: Because, by virtue of the Executive Office of the President getting the release numbers the night before, he knew the numbers were<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":347811,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347810"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347810"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347810\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347811"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}