{"id":347555,"date":"2025-08-31T20:16:38","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T01:16:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/31\/deceleration-confirmed-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-08-31T20:16:38","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T01:16:38","slug":"deceleration-confirmed-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/31\/deceleration-confirmed-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Deceleration Confirmed | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Despite the upward revision to Q2 GDP, and accelerated nowcast growth in 3rd quarter GDP, aggregate demand is decelerating.<\/p>\n<p>First, GDP, the measurement of which we know has been distorted by tariff frontrunning:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/gdp_2nd.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57811\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/gdp_2nd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/gdp_2nd.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/gdp_2nd-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/gdp_2nd-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/gdp_2nd-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP, latest vintage (bold black), advance release (blue), GDPNow of 8\/29 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median (dark red), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Q2 GDP growth (q\/q AR) was revised up, and Q3 GDPNow was upped from 2.2%to 3.5%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers was increased, as was the Q3 nowcast.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/finsalesprivdom_2nd.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57812\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/finsalesprivdom_2nd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/finsalesprivdom_2nd.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/finsalesprivdom_2nd-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/finsalesprivdom_2nd-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/finsalesprivdom_2nd-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2: <\/strong>Final sales to private domestic purchasers, latest vintage (bold black), advance release (blue), GDPNow of 8\/29 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median (dark red), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Hence, there\u2019s no big recovery in what Furman calls \u201ccore GDP\u201d (essentially private domestic aggregate demand), in that we are not by any means returning to the 2023-24 trajectory.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/deceleration-confirmed\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Despite the upward revision to Q2 GDP, and accelerated nowcast growth in 3rd quarter GDP, aggregate demand is decelerating. First, GDP, the measurement of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":347556,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347555"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}