{"id":347420,"date":"2025-08-27T22:32:56","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T03:32:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/27\/term-premium-and-trsy-tips-breakeven\/"},"modified":"2025-08-27T22:32:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T03:32:56","slug":"term-premium-and-trsy-tips-breakeven","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/27\/term-premium-and-trsy-tips-breakeven\/","title":{"rendered":"Term Premium and Trsy-TIPS Breakeven"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-57801\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>The 10yr term premium has risen, as has the 5yr TIPS-Trsy breakeven, in the wake of Mr. Trump\u2019s campaign to subjugate the Fed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix1a.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57805\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix1a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix1a.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix1a-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix1a-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix1a-624x369.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Ten year term premium, in % (blue). Light orange shading denotes period between Vought letter to Powell and Trump\u2019s visit to Fed. Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org\/2014\/05\/treasury-term-premia-1961-present\/\">NY Fed<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiveyrbreakeven1a.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57806\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiveyrbreakeven1a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiveyrbreakeven1a.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiveyrbreakeven1a-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiveyrbreakeven1a-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiveyrbreakeven1a-624x369.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Five year Treasury-TIPS breakeven, in % (blue). Light orange shading denotes period between Vought letter to Powell and Trump\u2019s visit to Fed. Source: Treasury via FRED.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>If Trump continues to browbeat the Fed into lowering the fed Funds rate, then the path of future nominal rates may be lowered, but higher expected inflation will tend to increase the term premium. Which dominates? That\u2019s ambiguous. Believers in the Fisherian relation know the answer.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/term-premium-and-trsy-tips-breakeven\" title=\"7:44 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-08-27T19:44:55-07:00\">August 27, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/term-premium-and-trsy-tips-breakeven\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; The 10yr term premium has risen, as has the 5yr TIPS-Trsy breakeven, in the wake of Mr. Trump\u2019s campaign to subjugate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":347421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347420"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347420"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347420\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}