{"id":347334,"date":"2025-08-26T15:57:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T20:57:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/26\/watch-the-term-premium-10yr\/"},"modified":"2025-08-26T15:57:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T20:57:48","slug":"watch-the-term-premium-10yr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/26\/watch-the-term-premium-10yr\/","title":{"rendered":"Watch the Term Premium (10yr)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-57777\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>That\u2019s Jared Bernstein\u2019s advice, in the wake of Trump\u2019s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here\u2019s the picture up to yesterday <em>before<\/em> the letter to Cook, using the NY Fed\u2019s (Adrian, Crump and Moench) model:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57778\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tenyrtermprempix-624x369.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Ten year term premium, in % (blue). Light orange shading denotes period between Vought letter to Powell and Trump\u2019s visit to Fed. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org\/2014\/05\/treasury-term-premia-1961-present\/\">NY Fed<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/what-will-the-term-premium-10yr-do\" title=\"12:44 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-08-26T12:44:06-07:00\">August 26, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/what-will-the-term-premium-10yr-do\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; That\u2019s Jared Bernstein\u2019s advice, in the wake of Trump\u2019s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here\u2019s the picture up to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":347335,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347334"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347334\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}