{"id":347330,"date":"2025-08-26T13:55:20","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T18:55:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/26\/confidence-drops-to-above-consensus\/"},"modified":"2025-08-26T13:55:20","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T18:55:20","slug":"confidence-drops-to-above-consensus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/26\/confidence-drops-to-above-consensus\/","title":{"rendered":"Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-57771\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\/\">Conference Board Consumer Confidence<\/a> at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sent_conf_newssentstd3.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57772\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sent_conf_newssentstd3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sent_conf_newssentstd3.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sent_conf_newssentstd3-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sent_conf_newssentstd3-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sent_conf_newssentstd3-624x419.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF Fed News Sentiment index (green), all standardized for 2021M01-2025M02 period. July sentiment is preliminary; August news sentiment through August 24. U.Michigan via FRED, Conference Board, SF Fed, NBER and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>While Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are about 1 or 1.5 standard deviations above the April trough, they\u2019re both about 1.5 standard deviations below December\/November peaks.<\/p>\n<p>Expectations continue to decline. Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of recession is climbing back to April levels.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cci-aug-2025-5.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57775\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cci-aug-2025-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"841\" height=\"414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cci-aug-2025-5.png 841w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cci-aug-2025-5-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cci-aug-2025-5-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cci-aug-2025-5-624x307.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\/\">Conference Board<\/a>, accessed 8\/262025.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/confidence-drops-to-above-consensus\" title=\"11:12 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-08-26T11:12:53-07:00\">August 26, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/confidence-drops-to-above-consensus\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus): Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":347331,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347330"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}