Mark Zandi<\/a> states that a third of the country is in recession. Here\u2019re some alternative ways of measuring the weakness in the economy, first by geography, second by indicator.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm payroll growth, q\/q annualized growth through July. Source: BLS, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Out of the 51 states plus Washington, DC, 41 have negative q\/q employment growth. The states experience the largest negative growth are (in descending order) Arizona, Oregon, Utah, District of Columbia, Iowa, Rhode Island, Nevada, and Wyoming.<\/p>\n The second measure I want to note is for the CFNAI (which is slightly below trend right now).<\/p>\n The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to \u20130.19 in July from \u20130.18 in June. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index\u2019s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to \u20130.18 in July from \u20130.26 in June.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The CFNAI diffusion<\/em><\/strong> index is shown below.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> CFNAI Diffusion Index. Source: Chicago Fed.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/qqarnfpgrowth_jul25.png\")
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